Archive for April, 2007

Apr 28 2007

Draft Day

Published by under Sports

I pretty much gave up on football, which is one of my true loves, once Denver went through a really disappointing loss for the final game of the year to miss the playoffs. They controlled their destiny and couldn’t pull it off. I even missed a lot of the playoff games although the Super Bowl is still http://snow-blind.net/?p=49 at our house.

Recently I had started getting back into it and getting excited. I was sick when I had heard the news of Darrent Williams’ death. Both from the pure incident itself and also for the spot it left Denver in. Denver did recover from that picking up Dre Bly. I have no doubt that this gives the Broncos the best corner combo in the league right now and could arguably be the one of the best combos of all time. Two All-Pro corners is a nice situation to be in.

Denver definitely has not sat back and been content with where they are. They have made just as many significant moves as most any other team in the league. Probably a bit unusual for a team on the brink of making the playoffs last year and finished at 9-7. But as Shannahan said when he benched Plummer for Cutler last year, they are playing for Championships and last years team was not a Championship contender.

So what changes have been made? On the offensive side, they have officially passed the torch to Cutler by trading Plummer. It sounds as though he has decided to retire from football. There is a new RB as they brought in Travis Henry and I hope his injuries are behind him. If he is healthy, he could definitely fill in the hole left from Tatum Bell’s departure. I’m anxious to see if Denver tries to go back to relying on a single back or if time will be shared between Henry and Mike Bell. Rod Smith has been the man in Denver for a long time but he is getting older and it is clear that the #1 receiver is now last year’s big pickup for them with Jevon Walker. They still need help in the WR position though and made moves to try and put them into a spot where they would have some depth there. Again, I think they can put a check mark in the success column. Denver picked up Brondon Stokely who had a slow year being injured much of last year and David Terrell who has had brief stints of success in the nfl, but has never really had a break out. Likewise, Quincy Morgan has been added to the roster and it will be quite possible for Smith to drop to the #3 receiver this year and they should be fun to see how it all shakes out. Additions to the tight end position were also made and they are deep in that position, but I still anticipate Alexander to stay the starter.

On the defensive side of the ball, despite the addition of Bly, I think is Denver’s short coming. They have lost lots of players including Courtney Brown and, the spot that will hurt the most, Al Wilson. I fully expect the needs on the defensive side to be where Denver tries to fill holes in the draft.  They have lots of need spots including filling that gaping hole that Al Wilson leaves at LB and depth on the defensive line. I’ve also seen a lot of speculation that a Safety may be a need that Denver addresses as John Lynch gets older.

Today is draft day and I will be tracking it a bit to see just how well Denver comes out at the end of the weekend. I’m actually looking forward to the season and I’m even hoping it will work out that I will be able to make it down to Denver to see another game.

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Apr 27 2007

Moving On Up To the South Side

Published by under Personal

The IT department was moving out of our first temporary location today. We were moving from a craptacular location that we’ve been enduring over the last year. The place was pretty bad. There were gaps in the door jam frame, unreliable HVAC which lead to frosted over windows in the winter, and an icy slalom of a parking lot that would literally cause our vehicles to slide to the curb. The building was managed by a company called Vanderscoff Enterprises and if that doesn’t sound like the evil empire behind a Scooby Doo mystery, I don’t know what does.

I was actually surprised to see how nice the new place was. The other place (likely cause of the known temporary occupancy of the location) had little that was done to it but a fresh coat of paint and some cubicle walls. The new place was an empty shell not even 2 months ago. They actually just poured the cement floor in it at that time. A lot more effort was putting into making this new location some place that was something that the company can be proud of instead of the embarrassing eye sore that the other place had been.

Once we are fully moved in, I will take a few photos to share. I still am not a fan of some of the things that are being considered optimal work environment features, but at least I don’t feel like we are working out of an unmaintained hole in the wall. I don’t have any grand illusions that my current job will be my perfect job, but I’ve been trying my best to get by.

Only thing I will miss will be the door I passed every day heading to the restroom that said “Native American Training Institute”.  I would have to resist  knocking on the door and asking if they could train me to be a native american each time. A bad joke but it would get me through my days.

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Apr 26 2007

AIPS #4 – Razz recap

Published by under Poker

Sometimes I wanna take you down.
Sometimes I wanna get you low.
Brush your hair back from your eyes.
Take you down let the river flow.
–Cracker

How did it go? Pictures are supposed to say 1,000 words, so here is a screen shot of my evening:

razz_aips

Actually, I think I played alright early on and got lucky enough to have some hands hit or hold up. With small stakes tourneys like this with shallow stacks, your fate usually boils down to just a hand or two though. If they don’t go your way, then it’s gonna be a short outing for you.

First pot I think I did fine. I tried to scare him on 4th when I was showing A5 to make him think I was perfect in the hole when in fact I was paired, but then I got a decent 4 to a 7 low on 5th and called. When he hit his 9 and I made my 7, I knew I was good at that point and as long as a low card didn’t hit him on 6th, I was gonna keep aggressive. I didn’t improve on 7th and I figured he could have improved enough to beat me. I decided to got the check/call route figuring the times he bluffs would outway any missed bets by me leading considering he would likely raise me if he had a 75 low beat.

Next hand I think I just played well when my opponent bricked. Fortunately my scary board was enough to chase him off.

So I started out running well and had some chips. I then went on the drought of all droughts. Even when I had door cards that would be good for bluffing, I was stuck out of position with a bunch of legitimate low looking door cards after me. I just got unlucky to be in a spot to make any plays.

Then the crippler happened. In level 4 I had a hand where I knew where I was the whole way and got a guy paying who was drawing thin. I had a 765 made low on 5th and he was showing a 9 low then paired his door card on 6th. He may have had as many as ten outs on the river to beat me counting that I brick as well. Not real good odds, but I’m sure he really didn’t know where he was at.

After that, I couldn’t get much going and with the blinds moving up rapidly as they do, I ended busting out well out of the money and the points (which was really what I needed). Fortunately the points leader didn’t make the final table for the first time in the series. Hopefully I can make up some ground with the next tourney.

To ease the pain, I played a single table of 50nl while I watched a friend finish up the tourney. She ended up busting just short of the money making her evening that much more painful than mine. I, at least, got to punish the poor ring games for $48 over 97 hands. Not bad for the evening putting me at around +$42 once you factor in the tourney and I’m also getting closer to my 10ptbb/100 winrate goal at those games.

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Apr 26 2007

U.S. Congressman Frank Announces Legislation to Repeal UIGEA

Published by under Poker

U.S. Congressman Frank Announces Legislation to Repeal UIGEA | Poker News

And the backlash from the poker community begins…

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Apr 26 2007

Flex:Open Source – Adobe Labs

Published by under Tech

I got this via Asa Dotzler.

I agree this could be interesting. With everyone clambering to build the next great, interface rich web based application, I think Flex could be a definite front runner in the Web2.0 space (I about have to cringe typing that as I hate hyped marketing terms). I am late to the flex game only running across it recently but I was kind of turned off by what seemed to be only commercial (non-free) tools available. This stifles my ability to play around with new technologies on my own, but I definitely think this could absolutely change the game.

Flex:Open Source – Adobe Labs

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Apr 24 2007

Drowning on the turn, but I can’t let go…

Published by under Poker

I’m going under, I’m suffocating
Drowning but I’m holding on
What keeps me breathing? Don’t have an answer
I’m drowning but I won’t let go
–Stone Temple Pilots

Ok, so I said I would post a hand that has been gnawing at my brain, so here it is. The villain in this hand is an aggressive player and will typically continuation bet aggressively. He is aggressive post flop but goes to showdown very little.

FullTiltPoker Game #2113604476: Table Maui (6 max) – $0.25/$0.50 – No Limit Hold’em – 2:27:22 ET – 2007/04/01
Seat 2: NewTeaBag ($54.35)
Seat 4: passa ($69.35)
Seat 5: xfileem17 ($17.70)
Seat 6: MacAnthony ($84.90)
NewTeaBag posts the small blind of $0.25
passa posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MacAnthony [4♣ 5♣]
xfileem17 folds
MacAnthony raises to $2
NewTeaBag folds
passa raises to $6
MacAnthony calls $4
*** FLOP *** [8♣ 3♣ T♠]
passa bets $10
MacAnthony calls $10
*** TURN *** [8♣ 3♣ T♠] [5♠]
passa checks
MacAnthony bets $18
passa raises to $53.35, and is all in

Now I’m stuck knowing I likely don’t have the best hand with a pair of 5s but I have the flush draw to go along with it. The one and only reason I bet there is that this player had taken this line with me before and typically was a missed couple of broadway cards and my bet on the turn took it down after a call on the flop. My bet on the turn was strictly to try and take it down due to that history we had. When he shoved over the top, I was then at a decision since I still had a lot of potential with my hand. His hand could be anything from an overpair, pocket tens (less likely since I think he just continues to bet with this), a ten with the flush draw (which has me in serious trouble, but again I think he just bets this out), or overs with the flush draw. I don’t think this is a bare bluff since he hasn’t really done much to tell me he is that type of gambling player. He is aggressive, but he doesn’t seem to be the push players off their hand type. Most likely I feel are an over pair or over cards with the flush draw.

If he has the over pair, then I’m about 30% to win. If he has overs and the flush draw, then I’m a 70% favorite. I think this is a less likely holding for him again cause he didn’t strike me as the typical gambling type. He was more the type to take pots down on the flop with large, aggressive bets. This was the exact reason why I played this hand with him. If I hit against a player like that, I can generally take a stack. Problem was I hit, but I didn’t hit well enough. A raise on the flop was an option for me, but then I go back to past experience with him where he would continuation bet, and check/fold the turn. I tried taking that route but it didn’t work and now I’m in an odd predicament. I would likely have made this same move if I didn’t hit on the turn but the fact that I did, is what makes this decision a little harder for me.

Let’s run the numbers. Pot size is around $68 with around $35 for me to call. Almost exactly 2:1 pot odds on the call. So if I think there is even a chance I am against AK of clubs, I think I have to take this shot given the next likely option is he has an over pair where I’m a 30% dog to win. Even right there, I am getting almost perfect odds to call. The one hand I fear is A♣ T♣ but I don’t really see him 3 betting that preflop, but I couldn’t put it past him. If he has that, I have a lousy 11% shot to hit my 2 pair or trips. The off chance he has the set of tens, I am a little better with an 18% shot.

After mulling over it for a bit, I figure this is likely one of those ev neutral plays that you see so much in PLO and don’t think twice about them and I put my money in figuring to be likely behind, but hoping to suckout. I just can’t let go of the situation I put myself in. So did I make the right move? Wrong move? Have my head up my ass? Or is this just like I figure and one of those ev neutral things so likely doesn’t matter what decision I make?

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